“Conditions are becoming favourable for onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala during next 4-5 days,” the IMD said on Thursday.
It reiterated its earlier forecast of overall above-normal monsoon between June to September this year.
Kerala is already receiving good, though patchy, pre-monsoon rainfall, which was over 100 mm in Kannur and Kozhikode districts and about 50 mm in Kochi and other south Indian cities like Bangalore.
“The monsoon has already struck Kerala for the common people, but for two criteria, including Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and Westerly Winds, we are yet to be satisfied to declare proper monsoon there,” private weather forecaster Skymet’s Director Mahesh Palawat told IANS.
The weather analysts had predicted monsoon would reach Mumbai and parts of West Bengal between June 12 to 14.
“Monsoon would strike Delhi by June-end or July 1,” Palawat said. He added that parts of Bihar would start receiving monsoon rain between June 15 to 20.
The northeastern states, for which the IMD had expected “below normal” rainfall, would, according to the weather analysts, continue receiving pre-monsoon showers till the normal monsoon arrives between June 12 and 14.
The IMD forecast has confirmed overall good rainfall this year after two successive drought.
“Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 106 percent of the long period average (LPA),” the IMD said.
The IMD said that the northwest region of the country will receive above normal rainfall, and central India and the southern peninsula region will receive excess rainfall.
“No one has predicted deficient rainfall this year. We can hope for good rains this year,” an IMD official said.
For the past two years, over 2,55,000 villages across 255 districts and 10 states are suffering from drought that has affected over 33 crore people.
This year, however, pattern changes were evident with drop in ‘El Nino’, a climatic phenomenon which is the warm phase of the cycle of warm and cold temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that also impacts the monsoon.
A high El Nino has a negative effect in terms of the weather, agriculture and economics.