Data showed industrial production contracted 4.3% in September, the worst performance since October 2011.
Two of India’s leading banks see growth slowing to 5% in the current financial year, following a sharper-than-expected contraction in industrial production in September and little evidence of a meaningful recovery. GDP grew 6.8% in FY19.
Growth in the July-September period may have dropped to 4.2% from 5% in the first quarter, according to estimates compiled by ET, increasing pressure on the government to take more steps to revive sentiment and demand. Official GDP data for the second quarter will be released on November 29 and the first full-year estimate will be available in January.
“The second-quarter GDP growth rate is likely to slip to 4.2% on account of low automobile sales, deceleration in air traffic movement, flattening of core sector growth and declining investment in construction and infrastructure,” according to Ecowrap, a monthly report by the Economic Research Department of State Bank of India (SBI).
The SBI report pegged full-year growth at 5%, down from 6.1% it had estimated earlier and expects “larger rate cuts” from RBI in the December monetary policy review, although it cautioned against such a move. The economy grew 5% in the June quarter, its slowest pace in six years.
Data released on Monday showed industrial production contracted 4.3% in September, the worst performance since October 2011. For the six months to September, industrial growth was 1.3% against 5.2% in the same period last year.The numbers triggered a raft of downgrades, even sharper than those after the first-quarter GDP estimates were announced in end-August.
The government has unveiled a series of measures, including a cut in the corporate tax rate to 15% and a Rs 25,000 crore special window for stalled real estate projects to help revive the economy.